Latvia holds parliamentary elections October 3 as Russia security concerns dominate campaign

Latvians will elect a new 100-seat parliament on October 3 through proportional representation, a system that typically produces coalition governments.[1] Security has emerged as the dominant campaign issue as NATO reinforces Baltic air defenses. Germany deployed Eurofighter jets to Lielvarde air base, 60 kilometers from Riga, following repeated drone incursions into Baltic airspace.[3][4][5] Intelligence officials warn that Russia could test NATO within months rather than years.

Polls show the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, leading the race.[6][7] The populist Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First are expected to perform strongly, while the center-left Progressives and conservative National Alliance are also positioned to enter parliament. Nearly all major parties view Russia and Belarus as security threats, a stance that reflects broad voter consensus. Latvians generally hold positive views of NATO.

Latvia commits 5% of GDP to defense spending by law, placing it among the few NATO members meeting that threshold.[8][9] Political analysts expect the country's NATO-aligned foreign policy to persist regardless of which parties form the next coalition.

Yet economic tensions complicate this security consensus. Since 2022, Latvia has reduced imports from Russia and Belarus by over 90% and imposed some of the EU's toughest restrictions on goods from both countries.[10][11] Businesses with pre-war Russian ties have faced severe disruption. While 60% of Latvians support reducing Russian dependence on security grounds, the economic cost of decoupling remains contentious among voters and businesses seeking investment recovery.[12]